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J Environ Manage. 2015 May 1;154:151-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.009. Epub 2015 Feb 25.

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

Author information

1
Universidade da Coruña, Spain.
2
Universidade da Coruña, Spain. Electronic address: maria.jose.lombardia@udc.es.
3
Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
4
Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, Spain.

Abstract

The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia.

KEYWORDS:

Bootstrap; Forest fires; Poisson mixed models; Prediction

PMID:
25725387
DOI:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.02.009
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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