Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Br J Cancer. 2015 Mar 3;112(5):943-7. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2014.606. Epub 2015 Feb 3.

Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960.

Author information

1
Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
2
Cancer Research UK, Head of Statistical Information, Angel Building, 407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD, UK.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages.

METHODS:

We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored.

RESULTS:

The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates.

CONCLUSIONS:

The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.

PMID:
25647015
PMCID:
PMC4453943
DOI:
10.1038/bjc.2014.606
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Nature Publishing Group Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center