To evaluate the reduction potential of industrial water pollutant emissions and to study the application of technology simulation in pollutant control and environment management, an Industrial Reduction Potential Analysis and Environment Management (IRPAEM) model was developed based on coupling of "material-process-technology-product". The model integrated bottom-up modeling and scenario analysis method, and was applied to China's paper industry. Results showed that under CM scenario, the reduction potentials of waster water, COD and ammonia nitrogen would reach 7 x 10(8) t, 39 x 10(4) t and 0.3 x 10(4) t, respectively in 2015, 13.8 x 10(8) t, 56 x 10(4) t and 0.5 x 10(4) t, respectively in 2020. Strengthening the end-treatment would still be the key method to reduce emissions during 2010-2020, while the reduction effect of structure adjustment would be more obvious during 2015-2020. Pollution production could basically reach the domestic or international advanced level of clean production in 2015 and 2020; the index of wastewater and ammonia nitrogen would basically meet the emission standards in 2015 and 2020 while COD would not.