Continuous increase in HIV-1 incidence after the year 2000 among men who have sex with men in Rome: insights from a 25-year retrospective cohort study

Euro Surveill. 2014 Nov 27;19(47):20969. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2014.19.47.20969.

Abstract

To assess trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk factors for seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) resident in Rome, Italy, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 25 years. Incidence rates and trends were modelled using Poisson regression and risk factors were assessed by multivariate Cox models. Of 1,862 HIV-1-negative individuals, 347 seroconverted during follow-up. HIV-1 incidence rates increased from 5.2/100 persons/year (p/y) in 1986 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3–11.5) to 9.2/00 p/y in 1992 (95% CI: 6.4–13.0), decreased to 1.3/100 p/y in 2001 and increased until 2009 (11.7/100 p/y; 95% CI: 7.4–18.6). The risk of HIV-1 seroconversion increased during the study period in younger MSM (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 17.18; 95% CI: 9.74–30.32 in 16–32 year-olds and IRR = 5.09; 95% CI: 2.92–8.87 in 33–41 year-olds) and in those who acquired syphilis (IRR = 7.71; 95% CI: 5.00–11.88). In contrast, the risk of seroconversion decreased among highly educated MSM (IRR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.35–0.82) and those without Italian citizenship (IRR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.28–0.71). The HIV epidemic in MSM living in Rome continues to expand. Targeted prevention programmes against sexually transmitted infections to enhance knowledge transfer and behavioural skills are urgently required.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • HIV Seroprevalence / trends*
  • HIV-1*
  • Homosexuality, Male / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Risk-Taking
  • Rome / epidemiology
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Viral / prevention & control
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Young Adult