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Elife. 2014 Oct 16;3:e03883. doi: 10.7554/eLife.03883.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.

Author information

1
Colin A Russell Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
2
Peter M Kasson Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States.
3
Ruben O Donis Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
4
Steven Riley Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States.
5
John Dunbar Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
6
Andrew Rambaut Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
7
Jason Asher Leidos contract support to the Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, United States.
8
Stephen Burke Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
9
C Todd Davis Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
10
Rebecca J Garten Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
11
Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
12
Simon I Hay Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
13
Sander Herfst Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
14
Nicola S Lewis Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
15
James O Lloyd-Smith Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.
16
Catherine A Macken Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
17
Sebastian Maurer-Stroh Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore; National Public Health Laboratory, Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore; School of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
18
Elizabeth Neuhaus Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
19
Colin R Parrish James A Baker Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States.
20
Kim M Pepin Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, United States.
21
Samuel S Shepard Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
22
David L Smith Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, United States.
23
David L Suarez Exotic and Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research Unit, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratories, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, United States.
24
Susan C Trock Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
25
Marc-Alain Widdowson Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
26
Dylan B George Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, United States.
27
Marc Lipsitch Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States; Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States.
28
Jesse D Bloom Division of Basic Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, United States.

Abstract

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

KEYWORDS:

emergence; evolutionary biology; genomics; human; infectious disease; influenza; microbiology; pandemic; viruses

PMID:
25321142
PMCID:
PMC4199076
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.03883
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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