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Ann Surg. 2014 Oct;260(4):680-8; discussion 688-90. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000000927.

The natural history of main duct-involved, mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: parameters predictive of progression.

Author information

1
*Department of Surgery, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis; and †Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, Indiana University Hospital, Indianapolis.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

As such, the natural history of MPD-involved IPMN is poorly understood.

BACKGROUND:

The high-risk of malignancy associated with main pancreatic duct (MPD)-involved intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) has been established by surgical series. The International Consensus Guidelines recommend surgical resection of MPD-involved IPMN in fit patients.

METHODS:

A review of a prospectively collected database (1992-2012) of patients with IPMN undergoing primary surveillance was performed. Invasive progression was defined as invasive carcinoma on pathology and/or positive cytopathology. Analyses included univariate, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.

RESULTS:

A total of 503 patients with IPMN underwent primary surveillance, 70 for MPD-involved, mixed-type IPMN. Indications for intensive surveillance of these 70 high-risk patients were comorbidities, patient choice, and early/borderline MPD dilation (42%, 51%, and 7%, respectively). Mean follow-up was 4.7 years. Nine patients (13%) progressed at a mean of 3.5 (range, 1-9) years during follow-up. Univariate analyses yielded weight loss, interval (from isolated branch-duct IPMN) to MPD involvement, diffuse MPD dilation, increase of MPD diameter, absence of extra pancreatic cysts, elevated serum CA19-9 levels, and elevated serum alkaline phosphatase levels as significant. Maximum MPD and/or branch-duct diameter were not significant. In logistic regression, diffuse MPD dilation, serum CA19-9 and serum alkaline phosphatase levels, and absence of extra pancreatic cysts were predictors of invasiveness. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the combination of these 4 factors achieved an accuracy of 98% in predicting progression.

CONCLUSIONS:

Primary surveillance of mixed-type IPMN may be a reasonable strategy in select patients. Diffuse MPD dilation, serum CA19-9, serum alkaline phosphatase, and absence of extrapancreatic cysts predict patients likely to progress during primary surveillance.

PMID:
25203885
DOI:
10.1097/SLA.0000000000000927
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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