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Health Serv Res. 2014 Dec;49 Suppl 2:2147-72. doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.12222. Epub 2014 Aug 15.

Using self-reported health measures to predict high-need cases among Medicaid-eligible adults.

Author information

1
University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To assess the ability of different self-reported health (SRH) measures to prospectively identify individuals with high future health care needs among adults eligible for Medicaid.

DATA SOURCES:

The 1997-2008 rounds of the National Health Interview Survey linked to the 1998-2009 rounds of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (n = 6,725).

STUDY DESIGN:

Multivariate logistic regression models are fitted for the following outcomes: having an inpatient visit; membership in the top decile of emergency room utilization; and membership in the top cost decile. We examine the incremental predictive ability of six different SRH domains (health conditions, mental health, access to care, health behaviors, health-related quality of life [HRQOL], and prior utilization) over a baseline model with sociodemographic characteristics. Models are evaluated using the c-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:

Self-reports of prior utilization provide the greatest predictive improvement, followed by information on health conditions and HRQOL. Models including these three domains meet the standard threshold of acceptability (c-statistics range from 0.703 to 0.751).

CONCLUSIONS:

SRH measures provide a promising way to prospectively profile Medicaid-eligible adults by likely health care needs.

KEYWORDS:

Medicaid; prediction models; risk assessment; self-rated health measurement

PMID:
25130916
PMCID:
PMC4241135
DOI:
10.1111/1475-6773.12222
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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