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J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2014 Oct;23(9):2274-82. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2014.04.015. Epub 2014 Jul 28.

Age-period-cohort effects on mortality from cerebrovascular disease in southern Spain.

Author information

Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública, Granada, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria de Granada, Granada, Spain. Electronic address:
Departamento de Farmacología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga.
Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública, Granada, Spain; Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Medicina Preventiva, Vigilancia y Promoción de la Salud, Hospital Universitario Virgen de las Nieves, Granada, Spain.
Servicio de Epidemiología y Salud Laboral, Consejería de Salud de la Junta de Andalucía, Sevilla, Spain.

Erratum in

  • J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2015 Mar;24(3):720. Moreno-Navarro, Eulalia [Corrected to Navarro-Moreno, Eulalia].



The aim of this article is to evaluate the age-period-cohort effects on mortality from cerebrovascular disease in Andalusia (southern Spain) as a whole and in each of its 8 provinces during the period 1981-2008.


A population-based ecologic study was conducted. In all, 145,867 deaths were analyzed for individuals between the ages of 15 and 84 years who died in Andalusia in the period of study. A nonlinear regression model was estimated for each gender group and geographic area. The effects of age, year of death, and birth cohort were parameterized using spline smoothing functions.


There is an upward trend in mortality from the age of 25 years. The risk of death was downward for cohorts born after 1896, decreasing after 1970 with steep slope. The analysis of the period effect showed that death rate first declined from 1981 to 1995 and then increased between 1995 and 2000, only to decrease again until 2008.


There is a similar age-period-cohort effect on male and female mortality from cerebrovascular disease in all the provinces of Andalusia and for Andalusia as a whole. A significant reduction of male and female mortality has been observed during the last decade.


Andalusia; Cerebrovascular disease; Poisson regression; Spain; age-period-cohort models; mortality

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