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Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8. Epub 2014 Jul 22.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Murray CJ1, Ortblad KF1, Guinovart C1, Lim SS1, Wolock TM1, Roberts DA1, Dansereau EA1, Graetz N1, Barber RM1, Brown JC1, Wang H1, Duber HC1, Naghavi M1, Dicker D1, Dandona L2, Salomon JA3, Heuton KR1, Foreman K4, Phillips DE1, Fleming TD1, Flaxman AD1, Phillips BK1, Johnson EK1, Coggeshall MS1, Abd-Allah F5, Abera SF6, Abraham JP7, Abubakar I8, Abu-Raddad LJ9, Abu-Rmeileh NM10, Achoki T11, Adeyemo AO12, Adou AK13, Adsuar JC14, Agardh EE15, Akena D16, Al Kahbouri MJ17, Alasfoor D17, Albittar MI18, Alcalá-Cerra G19, Alegretti MA20, Alemu ZA21, Alfonso-Cristancho R22, Alhabib S23, Ali R24, Alla F25, Allen PJ26, Alsharif U27, Alvarez E28, Alvis-Guzman N29, Amankwaa AA30, Amare AT31, Amini H32, Ammar W33, Anderson BO22, Antonio CA34, Anwari P35, Arnlöv J36, Arsenijevic VS37, Artaman A38, Asghar RJ39, Assadi R40, Atkins LS41, Badawi A42, Balakrishnan K43, Banerjee A44, Basu S45, Beardsley J46, Bekele T47, Bell ML48, Bernabe E49, Beyene TJ50, Bhala N51, Bhalla A52, Bhutta ZA53, Abdulhak AB54, Binagwaho A55, Blore JD56, Basara BB57, Bose D58, Brainin M59, Breitborde N60, Castañeda-Orjuela CA61, Catalá-López F62, Chadha VK63, Chang JC64, Chiang PP65, Chuang TW66, Colomar M67, Cooper LT68, Cooper C69, Courville KJ70, Cowie BC71, Criqui MH72, Dandona R73, Dayama A74, De Leo D75, Degenhardt L76, Del Pozo-Cruz B77, Deribe K50, Des Jarlais DC78, Dessalegn M79, Dharmaratne SD80, Dilmen U81, Ding EL82, Driscoll TR83, Durrani AM84, Ellenbogen RG85, Ermakov SP86, Esteghamati A87, Faraon EJ34, Farzadfar F88, Fereshtehnejad SM89, Fijabi DO90, Forouzanfar MH1, Fra Paleo U14, Gaffikin L91, Gamkrelidze A92, Gankpé FG93, Geleijnse JM94, Gessner BD95, Gibney KB96, Ginawi IA97, Glaser EL98, Gona P99, Goto A100, Gouda HN101, Gugnani HC102, Gupta R103, Gupta R104, Hafezi-Nejad N87, Hamadeh RR105, Hammami M106, Hankey GJ107, Harb HL33, Haro JM108, Havmoeller R109, Hay SI24, Hedayati MT110, Pi IB111, Hoek HW112, Hornberger JC113, Hosgood HD114, Hotez PJ115, Hoy DG116, Huang JJ48, Iburg KM117, Idrisov BT118, Innos K119, Jacobsen KH120, Jeemon P121, Jensen PN22, Jha V52, Jiang G122, Jonas JB123, Juel K124, Kan H125, Kankindi I55, Karam NE126, Karch A127, Karema CK128, Kaul A129, Kawakami N130, Kazi DS131, Kemp AH132, Kengne AP133, Keren A134, Kereselidze M92, Khader YS135, Khalifa SE136, Khan EA137, Khang YH138, Khonelidze I92, Kinfu Y139, Kinge JM140, Knibbs L101, Kokubo Y141, Kosen S142, Defo BK143, Kulkarni VS144, Kulkarni C145, Kumar K146, Kumar RB147, Kumar GA73, Kwan GF148, Lai T149, Balaji AL56, Lam H150, Lan Q151, Lansingh VC152, Larson HJ153, Larsson A36, Lee JT154, Leigh J155, Leinsalu M119, Leung R156, Li Y157, Li Y157, De Lima GM158, Lin HH159, Lipshultz SE160, Liu S161, Liu Y162, Lloyd BK163, Lotufo PA132, Machado VM164, Maclachlan JH71, Magis-Rodriguez C165, Majdan M166, Mapoma CC167, Marcenes W168, Marzan MB169, Masci JR170, Mashal MT171, Mason-Jones AJ172, Mayosi BM173, Mazorodze TT174, Mckay AC175, Meaney PA176, Mehndiratta MM177, Mejia-Rodriguez F111, Melaku YA178, Memish ZA179, Mendoza W180, Miller TR181, Mills EJ182, Mohammad KA183, Mokdad AH1, Mola GL184, Monasta L185, Montico M185, Moore AR186, Mori R187, Moturi WN188, Mukaigawara M189, Murthy KS73, Naheed A190, Naidoo KS191, Naldi L192, Nangia V193, Narayan KM162, Nash D194, Nejjari C195, Nelson RG196, Neupane SP197, Newton CR198, Ng M1, Nisar MI199, Nolte S27, Norheim OF200, Nowaseb V201, Nyakarahuka L16, Oh IH202, Ohkubo T203, Olusanya BO204, Omer SB162, Opio JN205, Orisakwe OE206, Pandian JD207, Papachristou C27, Caicedo AJ29, Patten SB208, Paul VK209, Pavlin BI210, Pearce N153, Pereira DM211, Pervaiz A212, Pesudovs K213, Petzold M214, Pourmalek F215, Qato D216, Quezada AD111, Quistberg DA22, Rafay A217, Rahimi K24, Rahimi-Movaghar V218, Ur Rahman S219, Raju M220, Rana SM221, Razavi H222, Reilly RQ223, Remuzzi G224, Richardus JH225, Ronfani L185, Roy N226, Sabin N227, Saeedi MY179, Sahraian MA228, Samonte GM229, Sawhney M230, Schneider IJ231, Schwebel DC232, Seedat S233, Sepanlou SG234, Servan-Mori EE111, Sheikhbahaei S87, Shibuya K235, Shin HH236, Shiue I237, Shivakoti R238, Sigfusdottir ID239, Silberberg DH240, Silva AP241, Simard EP242, Singh JA232, Skirbekk V140, Sliwa K243, Soneji S244, Soshnikov SS245, Sreeramareddy CT246, Stathopoulou VK247, Stroumpoulis K248, Swaminathan S249, Sykes BL250, Tabb KM251, Talongwa RT252, Tenkorang EY253, Terkawi AS254, Thomson AJ255, Thorne-Lyman AL256, Towbin JA257, Traebert J258, Tran BX259, Dimbuene ZT260, Tsilimbaris M261, Uchendu US262, Ukwaja KN263, Uzun SB81, Vallely AJ264, Vasankari TJ265, Venketasubramanian N266, Violante FS267, Vlassov VV268, Vollset SE269, Waller S270, Wallin MT271, Wang L161, Wang X272, Wang Y273, Weichenthal S236, Weiderpass E274, Weintraub RG275, Westerman R276, White RA277, Wilkinson JD278, Williams TN4, Woldeyohannes SM279, Wong JQ280, Xu G281, Yang YC282, Yano Y283, Yentur GK57, Yip P284, Yonemoto N285, Yoon SJ154, Younis M286, Yu C287, Jin KY288, El Sayed Zaki M289, Zhao Y290, Zheng Y291, Zhou M161, Zhu J273, Zou XN292, Lopez AD56, Vos T1.

Author information

1
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
2
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.
3
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
4
Imperial College London, London, UK.
5
Faculty of Medicine, Cairo-University, Cairo, Egypt.
6
College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
7
University of Texas School of Medicine San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA.
8
University College London, London, UK.
9
Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar.
10
Institute of Community and Public Health-Birzeti University, Ramallah, West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory.
11
Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
12
Evidence For Action (MamaYe), Freetown, Western Area, Sierra Leone.
13
Association Ivoirienne Pour Le Bien Etre Familial, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
14
University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain.
15
Institution of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
16
Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
17
Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman.
18
Independent, Damascus, Syria.
19
Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Neurociencias (CISNEURO), Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.
20
Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Social, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay.
21
Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
22
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
23
National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
24
University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
25
School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France.
26
Ministry of Health, Belmopan, Cayo, Belize.
27
Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
28
Government, Madrid, Spain.
29
Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.
30
Albany State University, Albany, GA, USA.
31
Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.
32
Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran.
33
Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon.
34
College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines.
35
UNFPA, Kabul, Afghanistan.
36
Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
37
Institute of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
38
Median Inc, Windsor, ON, Canada.
39
South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan.
40
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
41
Ministry of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Castries, St. Lucia.
42
Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.
43
Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, India.
44
University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
45
Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
46
Oxford University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
47
Madawalabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia.
48
Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
49
King's College London, London, UK.
50
Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
51
Wellington Hospital, Wellington, New Zealand.
52
Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India.
53
Aga Khan University Medical Center, Nairobi, Kenya.
54
University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, USA.
55
Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda.
56
University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
57
General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey.
58
World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
59
Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria.
60
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
61
Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Colombia.
62
Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain.
63
National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India.
64
National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
65
General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
66
Department of Parasitology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Center for International Tropical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
67
UNICEM, Montevideo, Uruguay.
68
Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
69
MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
70
Hospital Dr. Gustavo N. Collado, Chitre, Herrera, Panama.
71
Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
72
University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
73
Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India.
74
Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
75
Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
76
University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
77
University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
78
Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
79
Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
80
University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.
81
Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey.
82
Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA.
83
Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
84
National Institutes of Health, Montgomery Village, MD, USA.
85
Harborview and University of Washington Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
86
The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
87
Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
88
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
89
Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Stockholm, Sweden.
90
Heller Graduate School, Waltham, MA, USA.
91
Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.
92
National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.
93
Clinique Coopérative de Parakou, Parakou, Borgou, Benin.
94
Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.
95
Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France.
96
Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
97
College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia.
98
Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Waltham, MA, USA.
99
University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA.
100
Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
101
University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
102
Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles.
103
Fortis Escorts Hospital, Jaipur, India.
104
Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA.
105
Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain.
106
Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA.
107
School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia.
108
Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
109
Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
110
Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran.
111
National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
112
Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands.
113
Cedar Associates, Menlo Park, CA, USA.
114
Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
115
Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
116
School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia.
117
Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
118
Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA.
119
National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.
120
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
121
Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, India.
122
Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China.
123
Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany.
124
The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark.
125
Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
126
University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon.
127
Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hannover-Braunschweig site, Germany.
128
Malaria & Other Parasitic Diseases Division, Kigali, Rwanda.
129
Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA.
130
School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan.
131
University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
132
University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
133
South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
134
Cardiology, Hadassah Ein Kerem University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel.
135
Jordan University of Science and Technology, Al-Ramtha, Jordan.
136
Supreme Council of Health, Doha, Qatar.
137
Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
138
Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
139
University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
140
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
141
Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
142
Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia.
143
University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada.
144
Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, AR, USA.
145
Rajrajeshwari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India.
146
International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
147
Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, Haryana, India.
148
Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
149
Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia.
150
Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines.
151
National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.
152
IAPB and Vision 2020 LA, Weston, FL, USA.
153
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK.
154
Korea University, Seoul, South Korea.
155
University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
156
University at Albany, The State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA.
157
Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA.
158
Unidade Local de Saude de Matosinhos, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal.
159
Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.
160
Wayne State University, Miami, FL, USA.
161
National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
162
Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
163
Eastern Health Clinical School, VIC, Australia; Turning Point, Eastern Health, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia.
164
Northern Region Health Administration, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal.
165
Centro Nacional para la Prevención y el Control del VIH/SIDA, Mexico City, Mexico.
166
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia.
167
University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
168
Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK.
169
University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center, Quezon City, Philippines.
170
Elmhurst Hospital Center, Mount Sinai Services, Elmhurst, NY, USA.
171
Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan.
172
University of York, York, UK.
173
University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
174
AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa.
175
EmergentCorp, Belize City, Belize.
176
Pereleman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
177
Janakpuri Superspecialty Hospital, New Delhi, India.
178
Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
179
Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
180
UNFPA, Lima, Peru.
181
Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton MD, USA; Centre for Population Health Research, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.
182
University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
183
University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq.
184
University of Papua New Guinea, Port Moresby, NCD, Papua New Guinea.
185
Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy.
186
University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA.
187
National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan.
188
Egerton University, Egerton, Rift Valley, Kenya.
189
Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
190
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
191
University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
192
Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy.
193
Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India.
194
School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA.
195
Faculty of Medicine, Fez, Morocco.
196
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA.
197
Norwegian Center for Addiction Research (SERAF), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
198
Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
199
Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
200
University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
201
Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia.
202
Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea.
203
Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
204
Center for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria.
205
Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Northern Uganda, Uganda.
206
Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
207
Christian Medical College Ludhiana, Ludhiana, India.
208
University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
209
AIIMS, New Delhi, India.
210
Independent, Waigani, NCD, Papua New Guinea.
211
3B's Research Group-Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine and ICVS/3B's-PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal.
212
Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
213
Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
214
Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
215
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
216
College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA.
217
Contech Intl., Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
218
Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
219
Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar.
220
University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.
221
Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
222
Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA.
223
Private consultant, Cairns, QLD, Australia.
224
IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy.
225
Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
226
BARC Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
227
Rwanda Bio-Medical Center, Kigali, Rwanda.
228
MS Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
229
National HIV/AIDS & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit, National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines.
230
Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA.
231
Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil.
232
University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
233
Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
234
Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
235
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
236
Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
237
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
238
Center for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
239
Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland.
240
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
241
Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
242
Surveillance and Health Services Research Program American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA.
243
Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
244
Dartmouth College, Lebanon, NH, USA.
245
Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia.
246
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia.
247
Centre Hospitalier Nord Deux-Sevres, Bressuire, France.
248
KEELPNO (Centre for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to "Alexandra" General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece.
249
National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
250
Department of Criminology, Law and Society (and Sociology), University of California-Irvine, Chicago, IL, USA.
251
University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA.
252
Ministry of Health-MINSANTE, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon.
253
Memorial University, St John's, NL, Canada.
254
Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
255
Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, BC, Canada.
256
The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
257
Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
258
University of Southern Santa Catarina, Palhoça, Santa Catarina, Brazil.
259
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
260
Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
261
Department of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece.
262
Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC, USA.
263
Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakailiki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria.
264
The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
265
UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland.
266
Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, Singapore.
267
University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
268
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.
269
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
270
Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
271
VA Medical Center and Georgetown University Neurology Department, Washington, DC, USA.
272
Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China.
273
National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China.
274
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Stockholm, Sweden.
275
University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
276
University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany.
277
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control and Department of Health Statistics, Division of Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway.
278
University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
279
Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
280
Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
281
Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China.
282
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
283
Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan.
284
The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
285
National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan.
286
Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA.
287
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
288
TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
289
Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt.
290
Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
291
Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
292
Cancer Institute/Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.

Erratum in

  • Lancet. 2014 Oct 25;384(9953):1504.
  • Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):956.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS:

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS:

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION:

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING:

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

PMID:
25059949
PMCID:
PMC4202387
DOI:
10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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