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Int J Urol. 2014 May;21(5):479-83.

Prediction of non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy in a Japanese cohort: development of a postoperative nomogram.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a nomogram based on postoperative factors and prostate-specific antigen levels to predict the non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy ina Japanese cohort.

METHODS:

A total of 606 Japanese patients with T1-3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at Tokyo Medical University hospital from 2000 to 2010 were studied. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox hazard regression analysis evaluating the prognostic significance of serum prostate-specific antigen and pathological factors in the radical prostatectomy specimens. The discriminating ability of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), and the predicted and actual outcomes were compared with a bootstrapped calibration plot.

RESULTS:

With a mean follow up of 60.0 months, a total of 187 patients (30.9%) experienced biochemical recurrence, with a 5-year non-biochemical recurrence rate of 72.3%. Based on a Cox hazard regression model, a nomogram was constructed to predict non-biochemical recurrence using serum prostate-specific antigen level and pathological features in radical prostatectomy specimens. The concordance index was 0.77, and the calibration plots appeared to be accurate.

CONCLUSIONS:

The postoperative nomogram described here can provide valuable information regarding the need for adjuvant/salvage radiation or hormonal therapy in patients after radical prostatectomy.

PMID:
24877254
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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