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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 May 13;111(19):6934-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316836111. Epub 2014 Apr 28.

Field experiments of success-breeds-success dynamics.

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Departments of Sociology andInstitute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook, NY 11794;
Department of Management Science and Innovation, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; and.
Department of Sociology, State University of New York, Geneseo, NY 14454.
Computer Science, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794;


Seemingly similar individuals often experience drastically different success trajectories, with some repeatedly failing and others consistently succeeding. One explanation is preexisting variability along unobserved fitness dimensions that is revealed gradually through differential achievement. Alternatively, positive feedback operating on arbitrary initial advantages may increasingly set apart winners from losers, producing runaway inequality. To identify social feedback in human reward systems, we conducted randomized experiments by intervening in live social environments across the domains of funding, status, endorsement, and reputation. In each system we consistently found that early success bestowed upon arbitrarily selected recipients produced significant improvements in subsequent rates of success compared with the control group of nonrecipients. However, success exhibited decreasing marginal returns, with larger initial advantages failing to produce much further differentiation. These findings suggest a lesser degree of vulnerability of reward systems to incidental or fabricated advantages and a more modest role for cumulative advantage in the explanation of social inequality than previously thought.


Matthew effect; power law; preferential attachment; rich-get-richer effects; scale-free networks

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