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Diabet Med. 2014 Nov;31(11):1378-86. doi: 10.1111/dme.12471. Epub 2014 May 14.

Comparison of different aspects of BMI history to identify undiagnosed diabetes in Japanese men and women: Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 12 (TOPICS 12).

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Department of Internal Medicine, Niigata University Faculty of Medicine, Niigata, Japan.



To examine current BMI and various aspects of BMI history as pre-screening tools for undiagnosed diabetes in Japanese individuals.


This cross-sectional study included 16 226 men and 7026 women aged 30-75 years without a self-reported history of clinician-diagnosed diabetes. We estimated the probability of having undiagnosed diabetes (fasting glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l and/or HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol⁄mol (≥ 6.5%) for the following variables: current BMI, BMI in the early 20s (BMI(20y)), lifetime maximum BMI (BMI(max)), change between BMI in the early 20s and current BMI (ΔBMI(20y-cur)), change between BMI in the early 20s and maximum BMI (ΔBMI(20y-max)), and change between lifetime maximum and current BMI (ΔBMI(max-cur)).


The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 3.3% (771/23252) among participants. BMI(max) , ΔBMI(20y-max) and current BMI (1-sd increments) were more strongly associated with diabetes than the other factors (multivariate odds ratio 1.58 [95% CI 1.47-1.70] in men and 1.65 [95% CI 1.43-1.90] in women for BMI(max) ; multivariate odds ratio 1.47 [95% CI 1.37-1.58] in men and 1.61 [95% CI 1.41-1.84] in women for ΔBMI(20y-max) ; multivariate odds ratio 1.47 [95% CI 1.36-1.58] in men and 1.63 [95% CI 1.40-1.89] in women for current BMI). The probability of having diabetes was markedly higher in those with both the highest tertile of BMI(max) and greatest ΔBMI(20y-max) ; however, a substantially lower likelihood of diabetes was observed among individuals with the lowest and middle tertiles of current BMI (< 24.62 kg/m² in men and < 22.54 kg/m² in women).


Lifetime maximum BMI and BMI changes from early adulthood were strongly associated with undiagnosed diabetes. Adding BMI history to people's current BMI would improve the identification of individuals with a markedly higher probability of having undiagnosed diabetes.

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