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J Viral Hepat. 2014 May;21 Suppl 1:60-89. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12249.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden.

Author information

1
Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.

Abstract

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

KEYWORDS:

HCV; diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; hepatitis C; incidence; mortality; prevalence; scenarios; treatment

PMID:
24713006
DOI:
10.1111/jvh.12249
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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