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Rev Environ Health. 2014;29(1-2):119-23. doi: 10.1515/reveh-2014-0029.

Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.


Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).

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