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Sci Rep. 2014 Mar 13;4:4364. doi: 10.1038/srep04364.

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes.

Author information

1
Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography (CASPO), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA.
2
1] Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography (CASPO), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA [2] United States Geologic Survey, La Jolla, CA, USA.
3
United States Geologic Survey, La Jolla, CA, USA.

Abstract

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

PMID:
24621567
PMCID:
PMC3952143
DOI:
10.1038/srep04364
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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