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J Hepatol. 2014 Jun;60(6):1158-64. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2014.02.024. Epub 2014 Mar 6.

Spleen stiffness measurement can predict clinical complications in compensated HCV-related cirrhosis: a prospective study.

Author information

1
Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy. Electronic address: antonio.colecchia@aosp.bo.it.
2
Department of Internal Medicine, General Hospital, Lecco, Italy.
3
Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences "L.Sacco", University of Milano, Italy.
4
Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
5
Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialist Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy.
6
Department of Pediatrics, University of Modena, Italy.
7
UCL Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK.

Abstract

BACKGROUND & AIMS:

Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement represents the best predictor of clinical decompensation (CD) in cirrhotic patients. Recently data show that measurement of spleen stiffness (SS) has an excellent correlation with HVPG levels. Aim of the present prospective study was to assess SS predictive value for CD compared to HVPG, liver stiffness (LS), and other non-invasive tests for portal hypertension in a cohort of patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS:

From an initial cohort of 124 patients, 92 underwent baseline LS, SS, HVPG measurements and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at enrolment and then followed-up for 2 years or until the occurrence of the first CD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used for determining judgement criteria associated parameters. Accuracy of predictive factors was evaluated using c statistic. The final model was internally validated using the bootstrap method.

RESULTS:

During follow-up, 30 out 92 (32.6%) patients developed CD. At univariate analysis varices at enrolment, all non-invasive parameters, HVPG, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) resulted clinical predictors of CD. At multivariate analysis only SS (p=0.0001) and MELD (p=0.014) resulted as predictive factors. A decision algorithm based on the results of a predictive model was proposed to detect patients with low risk of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study shows that in compensated cirrhotic patients a SS and MELD predictive model represents an accurate predictor of CD with accuracy at least equivalent to that of HVPG. If confirmed by further studies, SS and MELD could represent valid alternatives to HVPG as prognostic indicator of CD in HCV-related cirrhosis.

KEYWORDS:

HVPG; Liver stiffness; Portal hypertension; Spleen

PMID:
24607624
DOI:
10.1016/j.jhep.2014.02.024
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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