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Epidemiology. 2014 Mar;25(2):203-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000055.

The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number.

Author information

1
From the aDepartment of Epidemiology, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; bDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; and cDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed.

METHODS:

Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states.

RESULTS:

The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%).

CONCLUSIONS:

Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.

PMID:
24434751
PMCID:
PMC3960948
DOI:
10.1097/EDE.0000000000000055
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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