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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Mar 4;111(9):3268-73. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110. Epub 2013 Dec 16.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.

Author information

1
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025.

Abstract

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

KEYWORDS:

AgMIP; ISI-MIP; agriculture; climate impacts; food security

PMID:
24344314
PMCID:
PMC3948251
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1222463110
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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