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Trends Parasitol. 2013 Nov;29(11):548-55. doi: 10.1016/ Epub 2013 Sep 21.

Challenges in predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium transmission potential.

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School of Medicine, Pharmacy, and Health, Durham University Queen's Campus, University Boulevard, Thornaby, Stockton on Tees, TS17 6BH, UK. Electronic address:


Climate change will inevitably influence both the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium and the incidence of schistosomiasis in areas where it is currently endemic, and impact on the feasibility of schistosomiasis control and elimination goals. There are several limitations of current models of climate and schistosome transmission, and substantial gaps in empirical data that impair model development. In this review we consider how temperature, precipitation, heat waves, drought, and flooding could impact on snail and schistosome population dynamics. We discuss how widely used degree day models of schistosome development may not be accurate at lower temperatures, and highlight the need for further research to improve our understanding of the relationship between air and water temperature and schistosome and snail development.


climate change; dynamic modelling; schistosomiasis; snail ecology; statistical modelling

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