Format

Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Nov 1;178(9):1505-12. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt133. Epub 2013 Sep 15.

A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics.

Abstract

The quantification of transmissibility during epidemics is essential to designing and adjusting public health responses. Transmissibility can be measured by the reproduction number R, the average number of secondary cases caused by an infected individual. Several methods have been proposed to estimate R over the course of an epidemic; however, they are usually difficult to implement for people without a strong background in statistical modeling. Here, we present a ready-to-use tool for estimating R from incidence time series, which is implemented in popular software including Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington). This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R and incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval (the time between the onset of symptoms in a primary case and the onset of symptoms in secondary cases). We applied the method to 5 historical outbreaks; the resulting estimates of R are consistent with those presented in the literature. This tool should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.

KEYWORDS:

SARS; incidence; influenza; measles; reproduction number; smallpox; software

PMID:
24043437
PMCID:
PMC3816335
DOI:
10.1093/aje/kwt133
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Silverchair Information Systems Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Support Center