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J R Soc Interface. 2013 Jul 3;10(86):20130414. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0414. Print 2013 Sep 6.

Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity.

Author information

1
Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01002, USA. nick@schoolph.umass.edu

Abstract

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between serotypes are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infection with dengue provides substantial short-term cross-protection against other serotypes (approx. 1-3 years). This is the first quantitative evidence that short-term cross-protection exists since human experimental infection studies performed in the 1950s. These findings will impact strategies for designing dengue vaccine studies, future multi-strain modelling efforts, and our understanding of evolutionary pressures in multi-strain disease systems.

KEYWORDS:

cross-protection; dengue; infectious disease modelling; time-series models

PMID:
23825116
PMCID:
PMC3730691
DOI:
10.1098/rsif.2013.0414
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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