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J Math Biol. 2014 May;68(6):1553-82. doi: 10.1007/s00285-013-0677-3. Epub 2013 May 8.

Transmission dynamics of West Nile virus in mosquitoes and corvids and non-corvids.

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1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Abstract

There are more than 300 avian species that can transmit West Nile virus (WNv). In general, the corvid and non-corvid families of birds have different responses to the virus, with corvids suffering a higher disease-induced mortality rate. By taking both corvids and non-corvids as the primary reservoir hosts and mosquitoes as vectors; we formulate and study a system of ordinary differential equations to model a single season of the transmission dynamics of WNv in the mosquito-bird cycle. We calculate the basic reproduction number and analyze the existence and stability of the equilibria. The existence of a backward bifurcation gives a further sub-threshold condition beyond the basic reproduction number for the spread of the virus. We also discuss the role of corvids and non-corvids in spreading the virus. We conclude that knowledge of the relative abundance of corvid bird species and other mammals assist us in accurate estimation of the epidemic of WNv.

PMID:
23652768
DOI:
10.1007/s00285-013-0677-3
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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