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J Popul Econ. 2013 Apr;26(2):811-834. Epub 2012 Sep 15.

Population aging and endogenous economic growth.

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Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA ; Institute for International Economics, University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany.


We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


Demographic change; Long-run economic growth; Technological progress

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