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Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2012 Oct;23(10):2829-35.

[Driving forces of carbon emission from energy consumption in China old industrial cities: a case study of Shenyang City, Northeast China].

[Article in Chinese]

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Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.


To quantitatively analyze the effects of anthropogenic factors on regional environmental quality is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development research. Taking the typical old industrial city Shenyang in Northeast China as a case, and by using the IPCC method for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption, this paper estimated the carbon emission from energy consumption in the city in 1978-2009, and a time series analysis on the anthropogenic factors driving this carbon emission was made by the STIRPAT model based upon Kaya equation and ridge regression. In 1978-2009, the carbon emission in the city had a slow increase first, slow decrease then, and a rapid increase thereafter. The total carbon emission in 2009 was 4.6 times of that in 1978. Population growth was the main factor driving the growth of the emission, and there existed an equal-proportional variation between the population growth and the carbon emission growth. Urbanization was another main driving factor followed by population growth, and the per capita GDP was positively correlated with the carbon emission. Kuznets curve did not exist for the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in Shenyang. Energy source intensity reduction (representing technology improvement) was the main factor driving the reduction of the total carbon emission.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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