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Virol J. 2013 Jan 3;10:8. doi: 10.1186/1743-422X-10-8.

Quantitative prediction of integrase inhibitor resistance from genotype through consensus linear regression modeling.

Author information

1
Tibotec-Virco, Beerse, Belgium. kvdborgh@its.jnj.com

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Integrase inhibitors (INI) form a new drug class in the treatment of HIV-1 patients. We developed a linear regression modeling approach to make a quantitative raltegravir (RAL) resistance phenotype prediction, as Fold Change in IC50 against a wild type virus, from mutations in the integrase genotype.

METHODS:

We developed a clonal genotype-phenotype database with 991 clones from 153 clinical isolates of INI naïve and RAL treated patients, and 28 site-directed mutants.We did the development of the RAL linear regression model in two stages, employing a genetic algorithm (GA) to select integrase mutations by consensus. First, we ran multiple GAs to generate first order linear regression models (GA models) that were stochastically optimized to reach a goal R2 accuracy, and consisted of a fixed-length subset of integrase mutations to estimate INI resistance. Secondly, we derived a consensus linear regression model in a forward stepwise regression procedure, considering integrase mutations or mutation pairs by descending prevalence in the GA models.

RESULTS:

The most frequently occurring mutations in the GA models were 92Q, 97A, 143R and 155H (all 100%), 143G (90%), 148H/R (89%), 148K (88%), 151I (81%), 121Y (75%), 143C (72%), and 74M (69%). The RAL second order model contained 30 single mutations and five mutation pairs (p < 0.01): 143C/R&97A, 155H&97A/151I and 74M&151I. The R2 performance of this model on the clonal training data was 0.97, and 0.78 on an unseen population genotype-phenotype dataset of 171 clinical isolates from RAL treated and INI naïve patients.

CONCLUSIONS:

We describe a systematic approach to derive a model for predicting INI resistance from a limited amount of clonal samples. Our RAL second order model is made available as an Additional file for calculating a resistance phenotype as the sum of integrase mutations and mutation pairs.

PMID:
23282253
PMCID:
PMC3551713
DOI:
10.1186/1743-422X-10-8
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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