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Stat Med. 2013 May 30;32(12):2070-8. doi: 10.1002/sim.5651. Epub 2012 Oct 4.

Deriving age-specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation.

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Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Centre, Duesseldorf, Germany.


This article describes new relationships between the age-specific incidence of, the prevalence of and mortality from a chronic disease. We express these relationships in terms of an ordinary differential equation and form the methodological basis for a novel approach to estimating incidences from age-specific prevalence data. We examine practical aspects of the relationships and a comparison with a known stochastic method in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the novel method to a data set of renal replacement therapy recorded from patients with chronic kidney failure in a region of Germany with approximately 310,000 inhabitants from 2002 to 2010.

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