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Risk Anal. 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S6-S13. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01745.x.

Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem.

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Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.


To better understand the contribution of cigarette smoking, and its changing role in lung cancer, this article provides an introduction to a special issue of Risk Analysis, which considers the relationship between smoking and lung cancer death rates during the period 1975-2000 for U.S. men and women aged 30-84 years. Six models are employed, which are part of a consortium of lung cancer modelers funded by National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). Starting with birth-cohort-specific smoking histories derived from National Health Interview Surveys, three scenarios are modeled: Actual Tobacco Control (observed trends in smoking), Complete Tobacco Control (a counterfactual lower bound on smoking rates that could have been achieved had all smoking ceased after the first Surgeon General's report in 1964), and No Tobacco Control (a counterfactual upper bound on smoking rates if smoking patterns that prevailed before the first studies in the 1950s began to inform the public about the hazards of smoking). Using these three scenarios and the lung cancer models, the number and percentage of lung cancer deaths averted from 1975-2000, among all deaths that could have been averted if tobacco control efforts been immediate and perfect, can be estimated. The variability of the results across multiple models provides a measure of the robustness of the results to model assumptions and structure. The results provide not only a portrait of the achieved impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality, but also the bounds of what still needs to be achieved.

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