Format

Send to

Choose Destination
PLoS One. 2012;7(6):e38904. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038904. Epub 2012 Jun 14.

Predicting progression of IgA nephropathy: new clinical progression risk score.

Author information

1
Nephrology Department, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.

Abstract

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Asia. In this study, based on a large cohort of Chinese patients with IgAN, we aim to identify independent predictive factors associated with disease progression to ESRD. We collected retrospective clinical data and renal outcomes on 619 biopsy-diagnosed IgAN patients with a mean follow-up time of 41.3 months. In total, 67 individuals reached the study endpoint defined by occurrence of ESRD necessitating renal replacement therapy. In the fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, there were four baseline variables with a significant independent effect on the risk of ESRD. These included: eGFR [HR = 0.96(0.95-0.97)], serum albumin [HR = 0.47(0.32-0.68)], hemoglobin [HR = 0.79(0.72-0.88)], and SBP [HR = 1.02(1.00-1.03)]. Based on these observations, we developed a 4-variable equation of a clinical risk score for disease progression. Our risk score explained nearly 22% of the total variance in the primary outcome. Survival ROC curves revealed that the risk score provided improved prediction of ESRD at 24th, 60th and 120th month of follow-up compared to the three previously proposed risk scores. In summary, our data indicate that IgAN patients with higher systolic blood pressure, lower eGFR, hemoglobin, and albumin levels at baseline are at a greatest risk of progression to ESRD. The new progression risk score calculated based on these four baseline variables offers a simple clinical tool for risk stratification.

PMID:
22719981
PMCID:
PMC3375310
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0038904
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for Public Library of Science Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center