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ISRN Oncol. 2012;2012:687298. doi: 10.5402/2012/687298. Epub 2012 Mar 7.

Comparing lung cancer risks in sweden, USA, and Japan.

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1
Hallberg Independent Research, Brattforsgatan 3, 123 50 Farsta, Sweden.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a conceptual model for lung cancer rates to describe and quantify observed differences between Sweden and USA contra Japan.

METHOD:

A two-parameter lognormal distribution was used to describe the lung cancer rates over time after a 1-year period of smoking. Based on that risk function in combination with smoking prevalence, the calculated age-standardized rates were adjusted to fit reported data from Japan, Sweden, and the USA by parameter variation.

RESULTS:

The risk of lung cancer is less in Japan than in Sweden and in the USA at the same smoking prevalence and intensity. Calculated age-specific rates did also fit well to reported rates without further parameter adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS:

This new type of cancer model appears to have high degree of predictive value. It is recommended that data from more countries are studied to identify important life-style factors related to lung cancer.

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