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Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2012 Jan;23(1):213-21.

[An approach for integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters based on catastrophe theory: taking Luoyuan Bay as a case].

[Article in Chinese]

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Third Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China.


Based on catastrophe theory, this paper established an index system and catastrophe progression model for the integrated assessment of eco-risk in coastal waters, including three risk types of "eutrophication-heavy metal pollution-organic pollution" and three dimensions of "water-sediment-organism". According to the related quality standards, a four-level evaluation standard of eco-risk (zero, low, medium, and high) was proposed, and by using the monitoring data of 2007 and 2009, an integrated assessment of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay was conducted. In 2007-2009, the spatial variation of the eco-risk in Luoyuan Bay had a downward trend from bayhead to baymouth, and the risk level in 2009 was overall lower than that in 2007. The key factor of the eco-risk in the Bay was eutrophication. The approach established in this paper could identify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of eco-risk in coastal waters, and better reflect the key eco-risk factor, providing a basic approach for effective forecasting and early warning of eco-risk in coastal waters.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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