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Eur J Cancer. 2012 Oct;48(15):2319-27. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2012.02.065. Epub 2012 Mar 19.

Predictive value of alpha-fetoprotein in the long-term risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B virus infection--results from a clinic-based longitudinal cohort.

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Liver Disease Prevention Center, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA 19107, USA.



Although serum level of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has long been used to complement imaging tests in the screening and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), whether it can be used as a predictive marker of long-term risk for developing HCC in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) has not been extensively evaluated and thus remains controversial.


We retrospectively conducted a clinic-based longitudinal cohort study including 617 Korean American patients with HBV who had been followed for up to 22 years (median follow-up time, 6.2 years) to evaluate the association between baseline serum AFP level and the long-term risk of HCC.


The median baseline AFP value of these patients was 3.8 ng/ml. Compared to patients with lower-than-median AFP value, those with higher-than-median baseline serum AFP had a significantly increased risk of developing HCC with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-5.99), independent of other major HCC risk factors. In addition, we calculated the cumulative incidence of HCC during different years of follow-up time by baseline serum AFP, and found that the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in HBV patients with high baseline serum AFP compared to those with low baseline serum AFP in each of the five follow-up time periods examined.


Our results indicated that AFP was a strong independent prospective predictor of long-term HCC risk in high-risk HBV patients. More targeted prevention and early detection of HCC may be considered for these patients.

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