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PLoS One. 2012;7(1):e29528. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0029528. Epub 2012 Jan 19.

Modeling the adoption of innovations in the presence of geographic and media influences.

Author information

1
Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America. jltoole@mit.edu

Abstract

While there is a large body of work examining the effects of social network structure on innovation adoption, models to date have lacked considerations of real geography or mass media. In this article, we show these features are crucial to making more accurate predictions of a social contagion and technology adoption at a city-to-city scale. Using data from the adoption of the popular micro-blogging platform, Twitter, we present a model of adoption on a network that places friendships in real geographic space and exposes individuals to mass media influence. We show that homophily both among individuals with similar propensities to adopt a technology and geographic location is critical to reproducing features of real spatiotemporal adoption. Furthermore, we estimate that mass media was responsible for increasing Twitter's user base two to four fold. To reflect this strength, we extend traditional contagion models to include an endogenous mass media agent that responds to those adopting an innovation as well as influencing agents to adopt themselves.

PMID:
22276119
PMCID:
PMC3261844
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0029528
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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