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Circ J. 2012;76(2):328-34. Epub 2011 Nov 17.

Predicting long-term mortality after first coronary revascularization: – the Kyoto model –.

Author information

1
Translational Research Center, Kyoto University Hospital, Japan. shiro@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

We explored the determinants of mortality in order to develop and validate the Kyoto model, which predicts outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS AND RESULTS:

A total of 9,393 patients who underwent their first coronary revascularization without concomitant valvular, left ventricular, or major vascular surgery were followed over a median follow-up of 3.5 years in the CREDO-Kyoto Registry. We fitted separate Cox regression to mortality after PCI and CABG. The best-fitting model was internally validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The Cox regression identified the following predictors: age, sex, body mass index, ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, current smoker, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignancy, kidney disease, anemia, liver cirrhosis, diseased vessel, left main disease, proximal left anterior descending artery disease, and total occlusion. This model simulated that the 3-year mortality for a hypothetical 70-year-old man with 2-vessel disease is 2.0% after PCI and 2.6% after CABG, or 4.2% and 5.1% if he has diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no significant deviations between the observed and predicted events. The C statistics were greater than 0.78.

CONCLUSIONS:

The Kyoto model can assist clinicians and patients in adherence to medication and lifestyle changes after revascularization and in individualized decision making. A web application is available at http://www.biostatistics.jp/prediction/kyoto-model.

PMID:
22094912
DOI:
10.1253/circj.cj-11-0398
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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