Transition probabilities for the Moran model with selection. The upper panel shows the probability of *n* individuals having allele *A*_{1} at time *t*, *P*_{50}_{;n}(*t*) for the Moran model with *N* = 100, starting from *m* = 50 with *u* = 0:02, *v* = 0:01, *α* = 60, and *β* = 10. We show the probabilities for *t* = 1 (solid line), *t* = 3 (dashed line), *t* = 5 (dotted line), *t* = 8 (dash-dotted line). Note that although the states 0 and 100 are not absorbing, the mutation rates *u* and *v* are small enough that probability accumulates significantly in these end states. Note also the asymmetry in the distribution at longer times. The lower panel reports the probability of fixation by time *t*, *P*_{m;}_{100}(*t*), for the same model, but with *u* = 0 so the state *n* = 100 is absorbing. The probabilities shown are for *m* = 70 (solid line), *m* = 50 (dashed line), *m* = 20 (dotted line), and *m* = 1 (dash-dotted line). Note the starkly different time-dynamics for different starting values.

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