Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Gut. 2012 Feb;61(2):290-6. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2011-300586. Epub 2011 Sep 19.

Impact of hepatitis C triple therapy availability upon the number of patients to be treated and associated costs in France: a model-based analysis.

Author information

ATIP-AVENIR Inserm U995, Université Lille Nord de France, Lille, France.



The combination of pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN), ribavirin (RBV) and a protease inhibitor (PI) has been approved in summer 2011 for the treatment of genotype 1 (G1) hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients, with a substantially improved efficacy. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of G1 patients to be treated in France in 2012 and associated costs.


A published model of HCV and data on PEG-IFN sales were used to estimate patients needing treatment using three scenarios. (1) HCV screening rate unchanged versus 2010; proportion of treated F0-F1 patients unchanged, proportion of treated F2-F4 patients increased to the current proportion of treated F2-F4 G2/3 patients. (2) Scenario 1 but the proportion of treated F0-F1 patients increased to the current proportion of treated F0-F1 G2/3 patients. (3) Scenario 2 but a 5% increase in the HCV screening rate. To estimate cost, treatment duration was multiplied by drug unit cost. Probabilities corresponding to treatment duration were estimated based on liver fibrosis stage, treatment-naive or experienced status of the patient and virological response kinetics on treatment.


Compared with the 5100 G1 patients treated in 2010, the number of G1 patients receiving treatment in 2012 would be 15,000 in scenario 1, 18,300 in scenario 2 and 19,400 in scenario 3, among whom 2.5-3.7% may receive PEG-IFN/RBV and 96.3-97.5% PEG-IFN/RBV+PI. Costs associated with this regimen use ranged from 497 to 638 million Euros.


These model-based estimates indicate that new anti-HCV treatments may result in a three- to fourfold increase in the number of G1 patients to be treated in France in 2012.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for HighWire
    Loading ...
    Support Center