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Stat Methods Med Res. 2015 Dec;24(6):615-34. doi: 10.1177/0962280211419832. Epub 2011 Sep 18.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

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Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK. Department of Statistics, University of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy.
Statistical Laboratory, Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.


Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis.


Bayesian decision theory; health economic evaluation; sensitivity analysis

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