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Br J Cancer. 2011 Oct 11;105(8):1144-50. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.364. Epub 2011 Sep 13.

Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.

Author information

1
NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Locked Bag 77, Camperdown, New South Wales 1450, Australia. chee.lee@ctc.usyd.edu.au

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

METHODS:

The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.

RESULTS:

The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.

CONCLUSION:

This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

PMID:
21915127
PMCID:
PMC3208495
DOI:
10.1038/bjc.2011.364
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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