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Am J Health Promot. 2011 Sep-Oct;26(1):e11-23. doi: 10.4278/ajhp.101014-QUAN-337.

The SmokingPaST Framework: illustrating the impact of quit attempts, quit methods, and new smokers on smoking prevalence, years of life saved, medical costs saved, programming costs, cost effectiveness, and return on investment.

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American Journal of Health Promotion, Bratenahl, Ohio, USA.



Describe the specifications of the Smoking Prevalence, Savings, and Treatment (SmokingPaST) Framework and show how it can illustrate the impact of quit attempts, quit method, number of new smokers, smoking rates of immigrants and emigrants, and death rates of smokers and nonsmokers on future smoking prevalence rates, program costs, years of life saved, medical costs saved, cost effectiveness of programs, and return on investment (ROI). FRAMEWORK SPECIFICATIONS: Mathematical relationships among factors in SmokingPaST are described. Input variables include baseline smoking rates among current adults, new adults, immigrants, and emigrants; population counts for these groups; annual quit attempts; and distribution of quit methods. Assumption variables include success rate by quit method, death rates of smokers and nonsmokers, annual medical costs of smoking, costs per person for four tobacco treatment methods, age distribution of quitters, and distribution of medical cost funding by source. Output variables include year-end adult smoking rates, successful quitters, years of life saved by quitting, medical costs saved by quitting and by not hiring smokers, total costs of smoking treatment programs, cost per quitter, cost per life-year saved, distribution of medical cost savings from quitting, and ROI of treatment costs.


The Framework was applied at the employer, county, state, and national levels.


The SmokingPaST Framework provides a conceptually simple framework that can be applied to any population. It illustrates that significant drops in smoking rates can be achieved and significant savings in medical costs can be captured by employers as well as state and federal governments through tobacco treatment and prevention programs. Savings are especially important for reducing state and federal government deficits and enhancing job competitiveness.

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