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J Arthroplasty. 2011 Sep;26(6 Suppl):124-8. doi: 10.1016/j.arth.2011.03.043.

Slowing demand for total joint arthroplasty in a population of 3.2 million.

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  • 1Division of Research Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California, USA.


Accurate projections of future demand require constant updates of current data. This article reviews the most recent usage data for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) in a community-based hospital system with 3.2 million members. We used administrative databases to determine plan membership, surgical volume, and age-adjusted incidence rates for TJA from 1996 through 2009. The annual growth rate in surgical volume peaked in 2002 at 18% and decreased to 3% by 2009. The annual growth rate for age-adjusted incidence rates peaked in 2002 at 13% and declined to 2% in 2009. In our population, the incidence of TJA continues to rise but at a much slower pace than in recent years.

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