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J Nutr Health Aging. 2011 Aug;15(7):586-92.

Predicting the outcome of long-term care by clinical and functional indices: the role of nutritional status.

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Department of Medical Physiopathology (Food Science Section) - “Sapienza” University of Rome, Italy.


In elderly subjects, past researches have already underlined the role of nutritional status as a basic factor able to influence the prognosis either in acute wards or in rehabilitation and long-term care settings. Aim of the study is that of retrospectively verify, through a multivariate analysis, the factors able to condition mortality in long-term care, paying particular attention to the nutritional status.


The survey included 513 patients aged more than 65 years admitted to a long-term care unit during a three years period. Exitus within the first three months of hospitalization was considered the outcome variable, while baseline functional, cognitive, clinical and nutritional status were considered the independent variables eventually related to mortality.


The univariate analysis found that some variables were significantly correlated with the outcome: comorbidity, ADL, cognitive status, pressure sores, albumin, transferrin, CRP, mucoprotein, cholesterol, cholinesterase, MAMC and MNA. The predictive value of the block model of the logistic regression analysis was 77.9% (specificity = 85.3%, sensitivity = 63.9%). With the forward stepwise analysis only MNA, cholinesterase, CRP and mucoprotein were considered in the final model. In this case the predictive value of the model was 79.3% (specificity = 84.6%, sensitivity = 69.46%).

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