Format

Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Diabetes Care. 2011 Sep;34(9):2108-12. doi: 10.2337/dc10-2201. Epub 2011 Jul 25.

Two-step approach for the prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk.

Author information

1
Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio, TX, USA. abdulghani@uthscsa.edu

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:

The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk.

RESULTS:

We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study.

CONCLUSIONS:

A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals.

PMID:
21788628
PMCID:
PMC3161295
DOI:
10.2337/dc10-2201
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for HighWire Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Support Center