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J R Soc Interface. 2012 Mar 7;9(68):562-70. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0325. Epub 2011 Jul 20.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.

Author information

1
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. ddurham@alumni.cmu.edu

Abstract

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.

PMID:
21775324
PMCID:
PMC3262418
DOI:
10.1098/rsif.2011.0325
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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