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J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2011 Aug;96(8):2596-600. doi: 10.1210/jc.2010-1698. Epub 2011 Jun 6.

Role of glycated hemoglobin in the prediction of future risk of T2DM.

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Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas 78229, USA.



The aim of this study was to assess the predictive power of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for future type 2 diabetes risk.


Six hundred eighty-seven subjects who were free of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) participated in the study. Each subject received a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test at baseline and 624 received a repeat oral glucose tolerance test after 3.5 ± 0.1 yr of follow-up. Anthropometric measurements, lipid profile, and HbA1c were measured during the baseline visit. Logistic multivariate models were created with T2DM status at follow-up as the dependent variable and other parameters as the independent variables. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) was used to assess the predictive discrimination of the various models.


HbA1c was a significant predictor of future T2DM risk (area under the ROC curve = 0.73, P < 0.0001). A HbA1c cut point of 5.65% had the maximal sum of sensitivity and specificity. Although the area under the ROC curve of HbA1c was smaller than the area under the ROC curve of both the 1-h plasma glucose concentration and a multivariate logistic model (including anthropometric parameters, lipid profile, and fasting plasma glucose), the addition of HbA1c to both the 1-h plasma glucose and the multivariate logistic model significantly increased their predictive power.


Although HbA1c alone is a weaker predictor of future T2DM risk compared with the 1-h plasma glucose, it provides additive information about future T2DM risk when added to previously published prediction models.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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