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J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011 Aug;65(8):676-81. doi: 10.1136/jech.2010.109058. Epub 2011 Apr 27.

The decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality in seven European countries: exploration of future trends.

Author information

1
Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

To assess the implication of a possible continuation of the decline in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the future.

METHODS:

Annual rates of decline in IHD mortality from 1980-2005 were determined for the national populations of the Netherlands, UK, France and four Nordic countries through regression analysis and used to extrapolate mortality rates until 2030. Through cause-elimination life tables we determined the impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth.

RESULTS:

In all countries, IHD mortality rates among both sexes declined incessantly until 2005. Age-adjusted mortality rates would have declined by about 50% in 2030 compared to 2005 if past trends were to continue. The impact of IHD on life expectancy at birth would decline by about 25-50% in most populations. The absolute numbers of IHD deaths would decline slowly or even increase in some countries mainly because of population ageing.

CONCLUSIONS:

If current IHD mortality trends continued, IHD would lose much of its importance as a cause of premature death in the near future. As the incidence and disabling impact of IHD might decline much less, prevention of IHD-related disability instead of mortality may become increasingly important in the future.

PMID:
21527402
DOI:
10.1136/jech.2010.109058
[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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