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Eur Heart J. 2011 Mar;32(5):581-9. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehq448. Epub 2010 Dec 22.

Estimating modifiable coronary heart disease risk in multiple regions of the world: the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score.

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Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Sciences, McMaster University, David Braley Cardiovascular Stroke Research Institute, Hamilton, ON, Canada.



Summating risk factor burden is a useful approach in the assessment of cardiovascular risk among apparently healthy individuals. We aimed to derive and validate a new score for myocardial infarction (MI) risk using modifiable risk factors, derived from the INTERHEART case-control study (n = 19 470).


Multiple logistic regression was used to create the INTERHEART Modifiable Risk Score (IHMRS). Internal validation was performed using split-sample methods. External validation was performed in an international prospective cohort study. A risk model including apolipoproteins, smoking, second-hand smoke exposure, hypertension, and diabetes was developed. Addition of further modifiable risk factors did not improve score discrimination in an external cohort. Split-sample validation studies showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve c-statistic of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.72]. The IHMRS was positively associated with incident MI in a large cohort of people at low risk for cardiovascular disease [12% increase in MI risk (95% CI: 8, 16%) with a 1-point increase in score] and showed appropriate discrimination in this cohort (ROC c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.74). Results were consistent across ethnic groups and geographic regions. A non-laboratory-based score is also supplied.


Using multiple modifiable risk factors from the INTERHEART case-control study, we have developed and validated a simple score for MI risk which is applicable to an international population.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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