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Am J Cardiol. 2010 Oct 15;106(8):1129-33. doi: 10.1016/j.amjcard.2010.06.030.

Annual incidence of atrial fibrillation and related factors in adults.

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Department of Stroke Medicine, Kawasaki Medical School, Kurashiki, Japan.


The aim of this study was to investigate the annual incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and related factors from health surveys in 2006 and 2007. Participants (aged ≥ 40 years) were examined from annual health surveys provided by the Kurashiki Public Health Center twice, in 2006 and 2007. Participants were classified into 2 groups: a control group without AF in 2006 and 2007, and an AF group with documented AF in 2007 but not in 2006. Annual AF incidence (per 1,000 patient-years) was calculated, and baseline characteristics were compared between groups. Independent factors for new documented AF were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression modeling. Health surveys were performed for 30,449 participants in 2006 and 2007. Excluding 439 participants with AF in 2006, newly documented AF was observed in 278 participants (0.9%), while the control group comprised 29,732 participants. The overall incidence of newly documented AF was 9.3/1,000 patient-years. Newly documented AF was significantly associated with age ≥ 80 years (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20 to 2.06, p = 0.001), history of cardiac disease (OR 7.47, 95% CI 5.79 to 9.63, p < 0.001), increasing estimated glomerular filtration rate of 10 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99, p = 0.025), and hypercholesterolemia (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.96, p = 0.023).

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