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Aust N Z J Public Health. 2010 Jun;34(3):311-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00532.x.

Quantifying the duration of pre-diabetes.

Author information

1
Centre for Burden of Disease and Cost-Effectiveness, School of Population Health, Edith Cavell Building, Herston Rd, Herston QLD 4006. m.bertram@sph.uq.edu.au

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

Interventions for individuals with pre-diabetes are efficacious, however, identification of people with pre-diabetes does not occur in Australia. This study aims to calculate the duration of pre-diabetes, in order to provide supporting evidence for a screening program.

METHODS:

We carried out a systematic review and random effects meta-analysis to identify if an increased risk of mortality is present in people with pre-diabetes. The result of this meta-analysis as well as information on prevalence, remission of pre-diabetes and transition to diabetes from an Australian cohort study, were used in the software program DisMod to calculate duration.

RESULTS:

From 2,578 articles identified, 11 studies met the inclusion criteria. The pooled relative risk of all-cause mortality was 1.26 (1.17-1.34) with no sign of heterogeneity between the studies. The average duration of pre-diabetes was 8.5 years in males aged 30+ and 10.3 years in females aged 30+.

CONCLUSIONS:

The duration of pre-diabetes in Australia is long enough to warrant a screening program. The finding is robust to sensitivity testing of very large variations in the epidemiological parameters.

IMPLICATIONS:

If the interventions following screening are shown to be cost-effective, a strong rationale for the implementation of a screening program exists.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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