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Theor Popul Biol. 2010 Aug;78(1):46-53. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2010.04.003. Epub 2010 May 7.

Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data.

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1
Section of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USA. rorres@vet.upenn.edu

Abstract

Three different estimators are presented for the types of parameters present in mathematical models of animal epidemics. The estimators make use of the data collected during an epidemic, which may be limited, incomplete, or under collection on an ongoing basis. When data are being collected on an ongoing basis, the estimated parameters can be used to evaluate putative control strategies. These estimators were tested using simulated epidemics based on a spatial, discrete-time, gravity-type, stochastic mathematical model containing two parameters. Target epidemics were simulated with the model and the three estimators were implemented using various combinations of collected data to independently determine the two parameters.

PMID:
20452368
PMCID:
PMC2902694
DOI:
10.1016/j.tpb.2010.04.003
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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