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J Clin Oncol. 2010 Apr 1;28(10):1660-5. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2009.26.2675. Epub 2010 Mar 1.

Clinical scoring system to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B carriers.

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Department of Medicine and Therapeutics and Institute of Digestive Disease, Chinese University of Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory in Oncology in South China.



Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important etiology for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aim to develop a simple clinical score in predicting the risk of HCC among HBV carriers.


We first evaluated 1,005 patients and found that the following five factors independently predicted HCC development: age, albumin, bilirubin, HBV DNA, and cirrhosis. These variables were used to construct a prediction score ranging from 0 to 44.5. The score was validated in another prospective cohort of 424 patients.


During a median follow-up of 10 years, 105 patients (10.%) in the training cohort and 45 patients (10.6%) in the validation cohort developed HCC. Cutoff values of 5 and 20 best discriminated HCC risk. By applying the cutoff value of 5, the score excluded future HCC development with high accuracy (negative predictive value = 97.8% and 97.3% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively). In the validation cohort, the 5-year HCC-free survival rates were 98.3%, 90.5%, and 78.9% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively. The hazard ratios for HCC in the medium- and high-risk groups were 12.8 and 14.6, respectively.


A simple prediction score constructed from routine clinical and laboratory parameters is accurate in predicting HCC development in HBV carriers. Future prospective validation is warranted.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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