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Dement Geriatr Cogn Disord. 2010;29(2):123-30. doi: 10.1159/000272436. Epub 2010 Feb 10.

A computer model of dementia prevalence in Australia: foreseeing outcomes of delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression, and eradicating dementia types.

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1
Dementia Collaborative Research Centre, School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Faculty of Medicine, Sydney, N.S.W., Australia. victor.vickland@unsw.edu.au

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040).

METHODS:

The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation.

RESULTS:

The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%.

CONCLUSION:

Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.

PMID:
20145398
DOI:
10.1159/000272436
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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